The dollar continues to score points, and the pound, to follow the twists and turns Brexit - ConsultFX

The dollar continues to score points, and the pound, to follow the twists and turns Brexit


In recent days, the dollar has once again managed to gain momentum and fully recover the losses incurred as a result of "softening" the position of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS).

The US currency has risen by almost 1% since the January Fed meeting, which resulted in the regulator's rhetoric surprisingly soft.


It should be noted that the position of Federal Reserve did not become unnecessarily a "pigeon", but simply ceased to be too "hawkish".

Despite the fact that the dollar lost its trump card in the form of an aggressive increase in the federal funds rate, other leading central banks also began to think about easing monetary policy. In particular, the ECB does not exclude the likelihood of expanding the list of incentives, and the Reserve Bank of Australia hints at the possibility of lowering the interest rate.

Is it any wonder then that, despite the optimistic forecasts for EUR / USD, according to which, by the end of this year, the euro will rise in price to $ 1.2, the pair is still confidently moving down.

In addition, the US economy still feels much better than most of its main competitors.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly noted that the position of the American economy, which is based on a strong labor market and inflation near the 2% target, is still strong. At the same time, the recovery of the eurozone economy in 2019 is still questionable.

In the medium term, it is assumed that EUR / USD will be in the range of 1.1265-1.1485. As a driver of growth, the pair can serve as a deterioration of macroeconomic statistics for the United States. In this case, the "bulls" for the euro only need to be patient.


As for the pair GBP / USD, today traders are awaiting the publication of the decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate.

It is expected that the regulator will not consider changing the rate until the conditions for the UK's withdrawal from the EU are clarified.

"The members of the Monetary Policy Committee, as a rule, try not to talk about the dynamics of the pound, so as not to be accused of currency manipulation. At the same time, the Central Bank is closely following its course," Rabobank experts said.

"The sharp fluctuations of the pound exchange rate significantly affect the inflation forecasts for Britain. Therefore, strong market movements on the news around Brexit can create serious problems for the regulator," they added.

According to their estimates, in the case of the implementation of the "hard" scenario, the GBP / USD pair can fall to the level of 1.14.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -