What will surprise the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the British Parliament?

The yen, which is a safe haven currency, unlike other major currencies, remains stable against the dollar, and this trend is likely to continue. It is expected that the Bank of Japan will leave its policy unchanged at a meeting on January 22-23. Overall, monetary policy in Japan will remain very favorable this year. The only thing is that the slowdown in the global economy and the decline in oil prices may make the Central Bank reconsider its forecasts for economic growth and inflation, but not to such an extent as to talk about changes in monetary policy.

The dollar may also be in a similar situation, the weakening momentum in the global economy forces the Fed to cautiously approach any further interest rate increase, and more and more factors suggest that the regulator can stop the policy tightening cycle altogether, leaving it unchanged. This will inevitably lead to a weakening dollar, which is currently overbought and overvalued according to fundamental indicators.

The pound continues to keep in a narrow range. Since in London, there is no agreement on how and, in general, whether the largest union in the world should leave. In addition, the likelihood of abandoning the transaction is growing, and a way out is possible without any conditions that could alleviate the economic shock. The euro is likely to remain under pressure as economic growth in Europe, including Germany and France, weakens, while inflation remains low.