Theresa May hit Zugzwang

Zugzwang is a position in checkers or chess, in which any player's next move leads to a deterioration in his position. Perhaps, this is the most accurate definition of the situation that has now developed in the UK.

It is symbolic that the country's exit plan from the EU has the unofficial name "Checkers" (checkers) since its main positions were agreed on this summer at the Prime Minister's residence of the same name. This plan was initially criticized, both by the conservative opposition and by the conservatives themselves. The Theresa May team was then abandoned by the most zealous Eurosceptics, accusing the prime minister of being too compliant to Brussels. Since then, May has been forced to reckon with the official opposition in the person of the Labor Party, as well as the internal party, in the person of the "hawks" among the conservatives. And if earlier she could ignore their opinion, then yesterday clearly demonstrated an obvious fact that during the two-year talks, the head of government lost too many allies, so she could not consolidate parliamentarians to make a historic decision.

The main problem of the deal is backstop. In the opinion of some conservatives and representatives of the unionist party, the special customs status of Northern Ireland does not have a time limit, and therefore it can become permanent. Moreover, according to the provisions of the transaction, London will not be able to waive this status unilaterally. It is worth recalling that the issue of the Irish border is the most complex and controversial. Brussels insisted and insists that there is no strict border control on the island of Ireland, so the parties finally agreed that there would be a special customs status in Northern Ireland, this was the compromise that the Europeans agreed on.

However, Theresa May's opponents have a radically different vision of the situation. In their opinion, the prime minister almost betrayed the country's national interests, because, by and large, now there are different customs rules in part of the UK, and without any reasonable time limits. And why such "privileges" are granted only to Northern Ireland, and not to other regions of the state, say, Scotland, whose residents also mostly voted against the country's withdrawal from the EU? There are too many similar questions, and Theresa May, in turn, could not find any intelligible answers to them, at least she could not convince her opponents of the expediency of these steps.

Traders are now asking a different rhetorical question, "what will happen next?". After all, by and large, British politicians have driven themselves into a corner. First, Theresa May was unable to play the "no alternative" card of the proposed deal. For a long time, she repeated the mantra that the agreed terms are most beneficial and Europe will not make additional concessions (Brussels confirmed her words with similar rhetoric). But now it suddenly turns out that the deal does have serious flaws that many deputies cannot put up with, even under the fear of the chaotic Brexit.

Secondly, the representatives of London and Brussels have repeatedly stated that there will be no additional negotiations on the agreement reached. However, after yesterday's events, the British prime minister has no choice but to resume negotiations, at least ask about this at the EU summit, which starts this Thursday. Brussels is also in a political grip. After all, if the Europeans do resume the dialogue, they will "open the Pandora's box", thereby leveling the assertion that the agreements reached are inviolable. Needless to say, Theresa May's opponents will take advantage of this situation to further exert political pressure on the Prime Minister? After all, if the European Union resumed negotiations, then London can bargain for more favorable conditions?

In other words, the situation really resembles zugzwang. May's inaction will lead to chaotic Brexit, and any vigorous actions by London and Brussels will only complicate the situation and ultimately also lead to a "tough" exit of the country from the EU.

According to some experts, if Theresa May will not be able to convince parliamentarians to vote for her deal in the near future, she will most likely resign, as Brussels is unlikely to make any concessions. Further scenario development is difficult to predict. Everything will depend on who will be the successor to the current prime minister. It is worth recalling here that the European Court recently ruled that Britain could unilaterally refuse to leave the EU. This requires a corresponding decision of the British government. Theresa May is categorically against this step, while the next cabinet may have a completely different opinion on this issue.

In the meantime, traders have no choice but to watch the battles of deputies. Today, the British Parliament will hold an emergency debate because of yesterday's decision by the Prime Minister. It is quite probable that today will allow us to understand which scenario further events will develop.