Risk appetite is growing, but soon there may be an excellent reason to sell USD / JPY

Recently, the dollar caught the palm among the G10 currencies from the Japanese yen, primarily due to the growth of the global risk appetite.

JP Morgan specialists expect that next year, the pair USD / JPY may rise to the level of 125, provided that the spread rates of the US and Japanese debt markets expand by another 30 basis points.

Meanwhile, a consensus forecast of experts polled recently by Bloomberg suggests a reduction of this pair to 107 by the end of 2019.

Credit Agricole, in turn, recommend buying the yen, which is already solidly cheaper against the dollar. They believe that the second quarter was the peak for the American economy. In the future, its growth rate should slow down. In addition, it is expected that next year, the Fed will take a pause in tightening monetary policy, while other central banks will actively raise interest rates. This is likely to force speculators to get rid of the American.

In the meantime, the global risk appetite is growing in anticipation of a settlement of the trade dispute between the United States and the Middle Kingdom. Negotiations between the leaders of the two countries should take place at the G-20 summit in Argentina, which will be held on November 30 - December 1. The lack of a positive result at the end of the meeting can serve as an excellent reason to sell USD / JPY. It is assumed that by this time the pair will reach the area of 114.5-115.5.