Review of the foreign exchange market on December 5, 2018

Quite interesting things were happening yesterday with a single European currency and pound. At the very beginning of the day, they were actively strengthened, and for no apparent reason, since all the statistics came out later. Although one of the representatives of the European Union said that Theresa May still has the option of completely abandoning Brexit. Allegedly, there is a legal loophole through which the UK can terminate the procedure and return everything to the state it was before the referendum. But it could hardly affect, all the more positively. After all, the refusal of Brexit will in many respects have a negative impact on the prospects of many European countries, which currently expect to eliminate a competitor in the domestic European market. Moreover, if Theresa May takes this step, then in Britain herself it will be considered a violation of the will of the people expressed during the referendum, and she can say goodbye to her political career. So the weakening of the dollar is more likely due to its overbought. The expectations for European statistics were quite optimistic. Moreover, the forecasts were not just justified, since the actual data turned out to be much better. Thus, the business activity index in the UK manufacturing sector grew from 53.2 to 53.4, while the growth rate of producer prices in Europe accelerated from 4.6% to 4.9%. But since noon, the dollar began to strengthen, and in time, it coincided with the performance of Mark Carney. The head of the Bank of England continued to paint a terrifying picture of the future, in which the pound is waiting for a collapse of 15% - 20%, and inflation will jump to 10%. True, it is not clear what happened to the forecast about the pound below parity against the dollar, which he recently gave.

Apparently, the pound flew down precisely because of the words of Mark Carney, and the single European currency because of the words of the representatives of the European Union about the remaining backup version, which is available to Theresa May.

After yesterday's strengthening of the dollar, the rebound suggests itself, and, frankly, there are plenty of reasons for this. Indeed, in the United States of America, there are no statistical data, and everything will depend on European statistics, forecasts for which are quite good.

Thus, the final data on business activity indices in the euro area should confirm the decline in the business activity index in the services sector from 53.7 to 53.1, and the composite from 53.1 to 52.4. But this data is already taken into account by the market after the publication of preliminary data. But retail sales can inspire investors, as their growth rates should accelerate from 0.8% to 2.1%. Given that this is a serious inflation factor, the single European currency may rise to 1.1375.

The pound will also have a reason for the growth in the form of an index of business activity in the services sector. Given that the UK does not publish preliminary data, the market still had nothing to consider, and the growth of the index from 52.2 to 52.5, given the oversold pound, this is an excellent reason to strengthen it. So the pound has good chances to grow to 1.2725.