According to experts, in the coming year, the most significant growth will be demonstrated by the currencies of developing countries, primarily the Brazilian real, the Indian rupee and the South African Rand. A number of experts predict a slight rise for the Turkish lira and the Russian ruble, but with some reservations.
At the end of 2018, when US indices reached regular heights and then collapsed sharply, endless sales were recorded on emerging markets. Many market participants assumed that, against the background of a fall in the value of US assets, the currency of emerging markets would be preferable. As a result, this happened, although not all currencies showed an increase at the end of the past year.
Recall that the ruble and Russian assets remain high sanction risks, and this can scare off investors. However, at the moment, Russian bonds have one of the highest and effective interest rates, analysts emphasize.
Last year, the US dollar strengthened significantly, while the assets and currencies of developing countries dropped significantly. In the coming year, the US authorities, owning a strengthened national currency, can cheaply buy assets around the world, experts say.
Currently, many traders and economists predict a weakening US dollar. The market overestimates the strategy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), betting on a pause in a series of monetary tightening. In 2020, the majority of market participants expect a reduction in rates. Against this background, the US currency may weaken against other currencies, experts believe. They believe that, against the background of declining yields on treasuries, currencies of developing countries may become attractive again, but this requires stabilization of the situation on world markets
Experts find it difficult to accurately predict the dynamics of the US currency, and a number of emerging markets. At the moment, market participants are waiting for further developments.
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