Hard times are coming for the dollar

The third and final assessment of US GDP growth in Q3. In 2018, it was slightly worse than the preliminary 3.5%, dropping to 3.4%, which came as a surprise to the players. The expert forecast did not suggest a decrease. However, the crafty American statistics has long been "a thing in itself," because smoothed data, whose task is to build confidence among investors, rather than informing them about the real state of affairs, you can still see the very tendencies that so frighten investors and make them escape from the stock market in search of safe assets.

For example, the profits of companies after taxes increased in 3 square meters by 3.5%, which is more and preliminary 3.3%, and 2.1% a quarter earlier. At the same time, the trade balance, if it is cleared of such a component as oil and oil products, for which the USA has been a net importer for many years, goes to a sharp peak, which shows the complete inability of the American economy to offer the world something more substantial than dollars.

Following the trade balance, the current account is also down, so there is no chance to balance the budget without another increase in the borrowing ceiling. Congress after the defeat of the Republicans in the midterm elections in December becomes less accommodating, and a number of federal departments were suspended on Saturday after Republicans and Democrats could not agree on the financing of the construction of the wall between the United States and Canada.

Since Monday is Monday and Tuesday in the United States are officially days off, the actual suspension of work will begin to be felt only on Wednesday. Until December 28, employees will receive a salary, then uncertainty ensues, which can be resolved no earlier than January 3 with the opening of a new session.

The head of the US Treasury Department, Steven Mnuchin, held talks with the leadership of the country's five largest banks, and the minister was primarily interested in providing liquidity for the entire spectrum of market operations. On Monday, Mnuchin intends to hold talks with a number of federal agencies, in particular with the Fed, CFTC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a number of other organizations. Such active actions on Christmas Eve against the background of shutdown may indicate a strong concern about the stable operation of the financial system in the current environment.

Eurozone

The European Commission notes a noticeable decline in consumer confidence in December to -6.2p against -3.9p a month earlier, the result was worse than forecast, but, nevertheless, the indicator still held above the long-term level of -12p.

It should be noted that the ECB did manage to resolve the issue of the stability of the euro, which continues to trade in a wide range without a clear direction. The measures aimed at providing liquidity after the completion of the LTRO were expected by the market, investors are not afraid of a slowdown in business, so the euro looks confident even without a traditional Christmas rally by the end of the year.

The 1.15 strength test for EUR / USD failed, however, another attempt in the coming days is quite likely. Low volatility can interfere, but at the same time there are no reasons for going out of the range down to support 1.1350.

Great Britain

Final data for 3 square meters. 2018 did not differ much from the forecasts, GBP / USD remained in the range, the output of which will most likely take place next year. The GDP growth rate was confirmed at 0.6%, the decline in investment inflows is slightly worse than expected, support at 1.2616 is likely to stand, since the negative for the pound has already been completely exhausted, but the dollar has troubled times.

After January 11, the debate on an agreement with the EU on Brexit will resume in parliament, most likely, it will be adopted without changes. The pound will hold at current levels and will gather strength to test 1.2705 strength.