Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for October 1, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive inside the bearish bias recently which made the price hold at the edge of the support area from 1.1600 to 50. After the rate hike by the US Fed from 2.00% to 2.25% last week, USD gained good momentum over EUR immediately. Nevertheless, USD is struggling for gains amid downbeat economic reports from the US. So, USD gains are expected to quite short-lived in the coming days.

This week the economic calendar contains several reports from the eurozone. Thus, EUR could find good suport against USD. Today German Retail Sales report was published with an increase to -0.1% from the previous value of -1.1% but it undershot the expectation of 0.4%, Spanish Manufacturing PMI decreased to 51.4 from the previous figure of 53.0 which was expected to be at 52.7, EURO Final Manufacturing PMI was also published with decrease to 53.2 which was expected to be unchanged at 53.3 but Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate had positive impact having decreased to 9.7% from the previous value of 10.2% which was expected to increase to 10.5%.

On the other hand, ahead of the NFP reports this week, USD is expected to be quite volatile with the upcoming gains. As US nonfarm payrolls are expected to show a decline in the private sector employment, USD could lose ground this week. Today US ISM Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 60.1 from the previous figure of 61.3, Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 55.6, Construction Spending is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1%, and Total Vehicle Sales is expected to have a slight increase to 16.8M from the previous figure of 16.7M.

Meanwhile, EUR has better chance to assert strength over USD, while USD may suffer from worse economic data in the process. Though crucial data from the US is due later this week, cautious expectations may lead to the bullish bias in the market for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.1600 area after rejecting off the June 2018 Trend Line support recently which is expected to lead to further bullish momentum in the pair leading the price towards 1.1750 to 1.1800 resistance area. As the price remains above 1.1600 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.1600, 1.1500

RESISTANCE: 1.1650, 1.1750, 1.1800

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE