Forecast for USD / JPY on October 19, 2018

USD / JPY

The yen got into a difficult political and technical situation. On Thursday, British Prime Minister Theresa May reported that the official date of the country's withdrawal from the EU could be postponed a few months later due to the lack of agreement on the deal so far. The US stock index S & P500 sank 1.44%, the British FTSE 100 lost -0.39%. Today, the Japanese Nikkei 225 is down 1.29%. The Chinese market is feeling much better. The Shanghai Composite is falling by only 0.02%, and this despite the fact that economic growth in the 3rd quarter was the weakest in the last 9 years. GDP was 6.5% y / y against the forecast of 6 , 6% y / y and 6.7% in the 2nd quarter. Also, industrial production slowed down stronger than forecast, the August figure was 5.8% y / y against expectations of 6.0% y / y and 6.1% y / y in July. Retail sales increased, the September data showed an increase from 9.0% y / y to 9.2% y / y.

The yen adjusted down from the nested line of the price channel, having lost 44 points yesterday. The issue of price exiting over resistance (112.72), where the daily scale of the Kruzenshtern trend line is also now, is becoming even more uncertain. Formally, the situation on the daily chart is bearish, since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of decline and the price is below the indicator trend line. The balance is biased towards growth (the price is above the balance line), but it is still weak, since even the opening of the day was below this line.

On H4, the Marlin oscillator line is in the growth zone and is fixed above the balance line, but the price is below the trend line, and this line itself is directed downwards. Leaving the price under the minimum of yesterday, which will mean a price reduction under the balance line on both timeframes, will make it possible to consider the level of 110.39 (September 7 minimum) as the immediate goal of the decline. Fixing the price above 112.72 will allow us to switch back to the growth scenario to the resistance of the graphic trend line to the area of 114.68.