EUR / USD. October 18th. The trading system "Regression Channels". Eurocurrency falls amid negative expectations in the negotiations

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -210.2490

The EUR / USD instrument on Thursday, October 18th, continues its downward movement, as indicated by the blue bars of the Heikin Ashi indicator. The pair did not manage to overcome the level of Murray "6/8". It can be said that the current fall in the pair is triggered by negative expectations of negotiations between the UK and the EU at the summit. The Brexit theme, as before, leaves too many unanswered questions, and it's extremely difficult to imagine what the new negotiations will end between London and Brussels. On the one hand, the stumbling block is the issue of the Northern Ireland border. Germany has already begun to prepare for the "tough" scenario of Brexit, Donald Tusk said that the probability of the release of the Kingdom without a "deal" is very high. On the other hand, internal political peripeteias make Theresa May work on two fronts. The British Parliament is unlikely to approve additional concessions to the European Union. At the same time, failure in negotiations will hit Theresa May's rating even more. Thus, May faces a very difficult task, to negotiate with the EU without any new concessions. Is it possible? We believe that either negotiations will be delayed for a few more months, or else they will fail. Any of these options is likely to put pressure not only on the pound sterling, but also on the euro currency.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1475

S2 - 1,1414

S3 - 1.1353

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1536

R2 - 1.1597

R3 - 1.1658

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues to move downward, so now it is recommended to consider short positions with a target of 1.1475, and in case of overcoming this target, with a target of 1.1414. The upward reversal of Heikin Ashi will indicate the beginning of an upward correction.

Buy orders are recommended to be considered only after the price is fixed back above the moving average line. In this case, the trend in the instrument will again change to ascending, and the first target will be 1.1597.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.